Similar to the World Cups in ODI and T20I cricket, the International Cricket Council introduced the World Test Championship for Tests in 2019 to bring more context to the purest form of the game.
The inaugural WTC, which ran from 2019 to 2021, was won by New Zealand in Southampton with Australia winning the WTC in the 2021-23 cycle at the Oval in London.
India is the only team to have qualified for the final in both editions and also stand a chance to repeat the feat for a third consecutive time in the WTC 2025 final to be played at the historic Lord’s in England in June next year.
The WTC window is a two-year cycle where all the nine Test-playing nations are awarded 12 points for a Test match win, six points for a tie and four for a draw.
Since different teams play different numbers of Test matches in the cycle, the percentage point is considered to decide the standings in a particular WTC cycle. The percentage point is calculated by dividing the total points won by a team by the maximum available points on offer.
For instance, if a team has played five Test matches in a particular cycle, the maximum points available on offer is 60. If the team won two matches, drew one and lost two, then the points won will be 28. The percentage point will be 28/60, that is, 46.67.
The Indian cricket team started their WTC 2023-25 campaign with a 1-0 win in the two-Test series in the West Indies. From the Caribbean, India travelled to South Africa to eke out a 1-1 draw against the Proteas, including a historic first Test win at Cape Town in January this year.
Though India lost the opening Test against the visiting England early this year, they bounced back in style to win four matches on the trot and also pocketed the five-match Test series 4-1.
What followed was an exhibition of top-notch cricket with India whitewashing neighbours Bangladesh 2-0 in their home assignment. India came back strongly after being in a spot of bother on the first day of the first Test at Chennai to win the match by 280 runs.
In the second match, they braved the rain which played spoilsport, to win by seven wickets in under two days.
India were sitting comfortably on top of the WTC 2023-25 points table but the recent 0-3 loss at home to New Zealand has pushed it to the second spot behind Australia. New Zealand won their first Test series in India subjecting the host to their first series loss in close to 12 years.
It was also the first time that India lost all the matches in a Test series that had three or more matches.
Currently, India has accumulated 98 points from eight wins, one draw and five losses in 14 matches. The team also lost two points from their tally as a penalty for slow over rate.
With a percentage point of 58.33, India are behind Australia who top the WTC 2023-25 point table with 62.50. Know how India can qualify for the WTC 2025 final.
How can India qualify for WTC 2025 final
India will qualify for the WTC 2023-25 final without depending on any team if they beat Australia by a margin of 5-0 or 4-0, including a draw, in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy starting on November 22. That will take India’s percentage point to 69.30 (for a 5-0 win) or 65.79 (for 4-0) and Australia will dip to 44.12 or 46.08 accordingly.
In that case, the only team that will have a realistic chance to bypass India will be South Africa. The Proteas have four Tests remaining in their schedule, two each at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Winning all four matches will take South Africa to 69.44 and the top spot in the points table.
New Zealand, who have a three-match home series against England, can reach a maximum of 64.29 only and Sri Lanka, who visit South Africa for their remaining two Tests, can attain a best score of 63.64.
But every loss or draw for India in the Australia series will make the qualification scenario more and more complex. Let us have a look at all the scenarios that India may face during the five-Test series against Australia along with the respective percentage points.
|
Remaining matches |
Wins for India |
Draws |
Losses for India |
Points won |
Expected Percentage - India |
Corresponding expected Percentage - Australia |
|
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
69.30 |
44.12 |
|
5 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
52 |
65.79 |
46.08 |
|
5 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
48 |
64.04 |
50.00 |
|
5 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
44 |
62.28 |
48.04 |
|
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
40 |
60.53 |
51.96 |
|
5 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
36 |
58.77 |
55.88 |
|
5 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
36 |
58.77 |
50.00 |
|
5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
32 |
57.02 |
53.92 |
|
5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
28 |
55.26 |
57.84 |
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
24 |
53.51 |
61.76 |
|
5 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
28 |
55.26 |
51.96 |
|
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
24 |
53.51 |
55.88 |
|
5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
20 |
51.75 |
59.80 |
|
5 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
50.00 |
63.73 |
|
5 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
48.25 |
67.65 |
|
5 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
20 |
51.75 |
53.92 |
|
5 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
16 |
50.00 |
57.84 |
|
5 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
12 |
48.25 |
61.76 |
|
5 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
46.49 |
65.69 |
|
5 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
44.74 |
69.61 |
|
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
42.98 |
73.53 |
Losing one Test out of the five will take India’s aggregate below New Zealand if the Kiwis can whitewash England 3-0 in their home series. Anything less than four wins for India will give Sri Lanka a chance of leapfrogging them, though they have a difficult tour of South Africa ahead of them.
India have the risk of Australia also getting past them in case they lose more than two Test matches to the hosts.
The only relief India will have is that third-placed Sri Lanka are up against South Africa so it will be difficult for both teams to go past them at the same time. Similarly, New Zealand will have a tough task on hand to win all their matches against England.
These factors will work in India’s favour but to have their fate in their own hands, India will need to win four Tests and remain unbeaten throughout the tour to make it to a third-straight WTC final.
Photo credit: Imago
